Author Archives: Grace

Remember the Peace Dividend?

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I recently posted a link to a YouTube channel called, “What’s Going on With Shipping?” In my humble opinion, most of us are totally oblivious to whatever is going on with shipping. Oil, food, and trinkets move from one country to another over wide oceans and through narrow channels while we go about our daily lives. Since WW II, the US Navy has patrolled those oceans and channels to make sure that ships are unhindered by piracy or other obstructions. 

A few years ago, Somali pirates attracted a lot of attention, but somehow they magically faded from the news. (Thanks, US Navy.) Now Yemeni Houthis are making life miserable near the Suez Canal, and all the king’s horses and all the king’s men seem unable to stop them. Most commercial shipping is rounding the southern tip of Africa rather than risk shelling by the Houthis. 

Which brings the question of what’s going on with the US Navy? And it turns out that the peace dividend we all got after the demise of the Soviet Union is partly to blame. No, it did not reduce our navy to nothing, but it did reduce many of the supports that the navy relies on. Who needs Oilers when there’s no war? Oilers? What are Oilers? A great question.

Which leads us back to “What’s Going on With Shipping?” In our search for answers. It turns out that even nuclear submarines cannot do without Oilers. And for sure aircraft carriers, and every other variety of naval vessel. And it turns out that we have fewer oilers than we need when hostilities arise. I won’t repeat the details here. You can watch/listen to the podcast if you like. 

Let’s just say that the optimism with permeated political discourse in the ‘90s was, perhaps, a bit premature. History did not end. The prevalence of nation states did not bring peace. Trading with enemies did not reform them. Human nature bubbled underneath the surface until recently, and now we have war. Good, old-fashioned war. More on human nature soon, but for now, just take this moment to learn about Oilers. 

What’s Going on With Shipping?

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My New Year’s resolution: Throw some new things at you in these posts!

Truth: I spend a lot of time on my phone. I used to listen almost entirely to audio podcasts, but a lot of podcasters have added a YouTube channel to their productions, so now I watch/listen to YouTube as well. “The Almighty Algorithm” suggests a lot of things, I try out a fair number of them, click away after a few minutes and try something else. But today I’m offering you a link to a channel that has really caught my attention recently.

The host, Sal Mercogliano, has a long history in the maritime industry. Through his posts, I’ve learned about the rash of Russian vessels sinking recently in the Sea of Azov, the Black Sea, and the Mediterranean Sea. Who knew?

Other posts talk about the size of container vessels, the problem of too many goods going one direction and too few goods going the other direction, and the need for the US Navy to have a sizable merchant marine fleet to assist with deliveries, and other functions. Again, who knew? And who knew that American ship-building capacity has dwindled since the demise of the Soviet Union whereas China’s has increased rapidly.

If you take a look around your home and around your community, the importance of shipping to our privileged lives is obvious. But we just don’t think about it much. Spend a few hours in 2025 learning more about shipping!

Stress Testing Our Democracy

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With the election of Donald Trump once again in 2024, we have opted to run a stress test on American democracy. Some thought we did this in 2020 with Trump’s first election. But guardrails in human form prevented Trump from doing all of what he wanted to do. Some think that the success of those guardrails are what brought us to Trump 2.0. His supporters were able to claim that his bark is bigger than his bite, so not to worry.

Human guardrails will be largely absent from his cabinet and other positions in the executive branch this time around. Now it will be up to people in Congress to protect us from the impulsive Trump who doesn’t listen to his Presidential Daily Briefings or bother to learn about the complexities of various issues. The first opportunity for the Senate to act will be regarding Trump’s cabinet nominees. Will Senators roll over and approve people who are unfit for their positions? Or will they hold hearings, require background checks, and actually reject some who might pose a danger to the country?

Biden has faded from public view, and Trump seems to be our acting President – or acting co-President along with Elon Musk. Score one for Elon this week as Trump has come out in favor of the H1B visa program that enables tech companies to import clever people from abroad to power their various creative endeavors. The question today is what will the MAGA wing do now? Will those who are opposed to almost all immigration, most especially of brown people, begin to lose their faith in Trump? Will anything at all cause them to rethink their support?

Some people fear, while others cheer, the notion of Trump as a wrecking ball. I’ve heard the call for more efficiency on the part of federal agencies for as long as I’ve been a voter. No one really delivers. Do we need a DOGE initiative to simply eliminate a variety of agencies, perhaps whole cabinet departments such as the Department of Education? That’s not my inclination. Long ago, I decided that government agencies are not going to be efficient, but that their functions are needed, and I would just tolerate inefficiency. 

After coming to that conclusion, I was pleased when some state and county agencies seemed to do some housekeeping. For sure, employees got some sort of customer service training. Also, some employees gained the ability to help with two things at one visit! E.g., “Would you like to change your voter registration information along with the address on your driver’s license? We can do both!” Well, yes I would, and thank you very much! Are similar improvements possible on the federal level?

Perhaps. Ten years ago, when we wanted to remove a culvert on a small stream on our property, several agencies at different levels of government needed to approve this project even though removing culverts is generally a good thing. But, the various agencies had at least cooperated by creating just one set of forms that could be submitted to all, plus they had designated one person to make the final approval! Still tedious, but much less tedious than in prior years. 

I favor incrementalist approaches to change, at least as it relates to governments. Revolutions just don’t always turn out well. Consider Russia. Or Iran. Or Cuba. Sure, get rid of Assad in Syria. But if the violence of a revolution can be avoided, I think that would be a good thing. Those who support Trump acting as a wrecking ball might have fantasies of a peaceful transition to a much smaller government. My vision is one of chaos with the loss of environmental protections and the minimal safety net that exists today. 

Will the Senate and the House of Representatives develop a spine and reclaim their authority to hold hearings on Cabinet nominees. Will they actually perform any oversight of any agencies? Will courts become too political or will they mind the Constitution?

For now, I remain curious – and anxious. We shall see.

P.S.: The news of Jimmy Carter’s death has just come out as I’m finishing this piece. I’m confident that if Kamala Harris had won the election, he would have lived long enough to see her inauguration. 

Merry Christmas, Folks

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Greetings from the East Puget Sound Lowlands where things are green, as usual. No lower elevation snow this year at all. Not even in the foothills. We’ve had enough wind to cause some power outages, but we have heat and lights in our house today.

If you are with friends or family today, I’m glad for you. We are reasonably healthy and together, so all is well here. I am sad for Ukraine, but I have a tiny bit of optimism that the tide there will turn this coming year. What’s the basis for that optimism? Simply that Russia is not doing well. Yes, a few gains on the battlefield, but the country is not healthy. Did you know that Russia has lost five cargo ships this month? Sunk! Kaput! Some breaking apart in rough seas, one from an explosion on board. Kaput! Again, fingers crossed for Ukraine.

As for the Middle East, I’m allowing myself a bit of optimism on that front as well. What if the guys who toppled Assad have changed for the better during the years since the active civil war? What if they really could govern with a spirit of tolerance? I’ve decided to be hopeful as a Christmas present to myself. Folly perhaps, but a spell of optimism can’t hurt, can it? Imagine what change for the better in Syria could do for Lebanon, Israel, Iraq. I’ll confess, I’m nervous for the Kurds, but fingers crossed for them as well.

I hope you are all having a joyful day.

December, 2024, Odds and Ends

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The year is coming to an end. What are we to make of it all? 

Syria

Bahar al-Assad is in Moscow. Good that he’s gone, but will something good come to pass in Syria in his absence? Check back a year from now.

Two Presidents

It has been customary in years past for the US to have only one president at at time, but this year we have two. The inauguration is not until January 20, but Trump is already wheeling and dealing with other world leaders. Hey, it’s Trump, so no one objects. Meanwhile, there is some hope that senators will grow a little spine as they contemplate his various cabinet appointees. Some are at least familiar with the basics of our government – stuff like three branches and no king. Others, not so much. I can’t wait to see if nominees will get background checks and if the Senate holds actual confirmation hearings. 

Health Care Anger

Periodically, I get angry at our health care system. That said, I don’t support assassinations of health care executives. Still, when I see YouTube videos with doctors saying things like, “a traumatic brain injury can last a lifetime,” I think, where were these docs when we needed them? Several years ago, when a certain friend was struggling with things as he did in the first few years after his TBI, I called two regional medical centers to see if I could get an appointment for him. Their first question was, “How long since his injury?” Decades, I responded. “Oh, well we don’t admit anyone to our program more than two years after an injury.” TWO YEARS??? WFT! Yeah, I get angry.

Hibernation, Anyone?

Why can’t we just hibernate during the winter? Wake up for holidays, then go back to sleep. Especially in the gloomy northwest. Even the winter sun is a problem because it aims right at my eyes when I’m driving. Yup. Hibernation!

 Seahawks

What is one to do with a floundering football team? The Seahawks are above .500 for now, but not by much. And even the games they win are hard to watch. Fumbles, interceptions, yellow flags, honestly it’s a miracle they win any. What to do, what to do???

SCOTUS

What is one to do with the Supreme Court? Yes, our Supreme Court, i.e. SCOTUS? This past week, they listened to arguments regarding a Tennessee law prohibiting medical transitions for minors. (You can find the transcript online.) Sadly, the only justices who seemed grounded in reality were the conservative ones. The liberals (remember Justice Jackson who couldn’t really say what a woman is because she’s not a biologist?) were off in la-la land with the trans-rights activists. Sigh. I just hate it when I have to rely on conservatives to stay tethered to earth. 

Swedish Death Cleaning

We have too much stuff and are too mired in winter lethargy to deal with it. A friend recently recommended a book about Swedish death cleaning. I started it, but wandered down a path of self-recrimination for not tending to such. Actually, it’s not just winter lethargy. We have opted not to deal with the stuff during all seasons for the past several years. A certain friend thinks we should sell it online. I can’t imagine gearing up for such an activity, so yesterday I actually emailed an estate sale agent nearby. Sadly, I waited until after 2:00, their office closing time on Saturdays, so I have to wait until Tuesday for a reply. Some of our stuff is worth some amount of money, but not so much that we are counting on it for our waning years. Check back with us in a year. 

Power Outages

We survived our first power outage in our new home. We were warned about big wind storms when we moved here, so we brought the porch chairs and the garbage bins inside. Then we watched TV until it blinked out about 7:00 p.m. First night, not too bad. Next day, (short winter day, remember), chilly but survivable. Second night: chillier than the first. Second day: we headed to Seattle. We had reservations at a hotel for our anniversary weekend, and decided to go a day early. Smart! Power came back 72 hours after it blinked out. Many others suffered much longer than we did.

Spare Heat

Some of our neighbors are planning to buy generators, but I think we will skip that solution. Been there, done that. We got a generator after a few outages at our Skagit house. But the problem with a generator is that it needs fuel. Usually gasoline. Which means you need to have it on hand just in case the power goes out because when the power goes out, the gas stations shut down. How much fuel? Depends on how big your generator is and how long you run it. We just ran ours for a couple of hours in the morning and evening to keep the fridge cool and run the furnace for a bit. But we had a propane stove, propane fireplaces, and propane lanterns. The house wasn’t toasty, but it was tolerable. What I really want here is a gas fireplace. I might even get out of bed to go shopping for that!

The End

I could go on, but I think I’ll do more odds and ends in the new year. Be well, folks.