Peace is Possible?

“The Economist” magazine thinks peace is possible. Their theory is that October 7 shook things up enough that both Israel and the Palestinians want things to change. October 7 and events since then have shaken me up, but I’ve come down on the opposite end of the teeter-totter. I see the end of Israel, and the increasing likelihood of another Holocaust. Perhaps the writers at the Economist don’t think pessimism sells as well as optimism? 

Here’s my reasoning: 1) Peace is unknown in the Middle East since the demise of the Ottoman Empire; 2) The two-state solution was conjured by the British in the 1920s and 30s, but it was never the preferred solution of either the Zionists or the Arabs/Palestinians. (In early iterations, Britain assumed it would be staying in the Middle East and could referee the unfriendly neighbors on occasion.) 3) Like it or not, Gaza voted for Hamas in 2005 just as Israel, through it multi-party system, voted for Netanyahu (many times over). Both want a single state solution (their own state). Israel has citizens who would opt for a two-state solution if it would bring peace, but they are currently not the majority. 

After WW II, when Britain could not get agreement on a solution, and everyone just wanted the Brits to go home, it placed the problem on the doorstep of the United Nations and left. The UN offered a two-state solution, which the Israelis reluctantly accepted. The Arabs and Palestinians rejected it, declared war when Israel declared independence, but lost the war. Jordan annexed the West Bank, Egypt took over Gaza, and Israel began governing the rest of Palestine. Many Arabs lost their homes during that war and continue to demand the “right to return.” Jordan accepted some of these as temporary refugees, but later sent them packing when they tried to take over Jordan. Meanwhile, Jews were purged by every Muslim country in the Middle East, but were accepted in Israel. 

The US tried carrots and sticks to push through a two-state solution in the ‘90s (Oslo Accords), but no deal was acceptable to all. And today, we have a horrendous situation. Currently, it seems the Palestinians are winning the PR war, at least with the “elite” members of European society and the Anglo-sphere. We are, it seems, unable to favor a winner and must always side with the underdog. For sure, the situation in Israel/Palestine is a long-standing, murky feud in which sad stories abound, and there is plenty of blame for all parties. 

But seriously, Israel has done some things right that seem to be ignored by those determined to commit both-sides-ism. Primary example: Arabs living within Israel, i.e. not in the West Bank or Gaza, are citizens, can vote, have representatives in the Knesset and on the Supreme Court. If Muslim or Christian, they can practice their religion unimpeded. Bedouins fare better within Israel than within the territories. 

Israeli citizens can and do protest, argue (eternally), speak and write of their concerns about every issue under the sun. No Arab country boasts such freedom. Who knows what the people of Gaza actually think of Hamas which has not held elections since it was voted into power in 2006. Do you ever wonder what improvements people might have enjoyed if all the money that has been poured into Gaza had gone for improved schools, hospitals, and other infrastructure rather than the immense network of fortified tunnels that shield their fighters? What if Hamas stopped firing rockets into Israel and focused on building an economy and Palestinian culture? 

The militant Islamists who run Gaza teach children every horrid prejudice of history about the Jews next door. They do not hate Zionists. They hate Jews. Honest. It’s that simple. There used to be Arabs who differentiated Zionists, who wanted a Jewish State, from Jews who simply wanted to live in their historic homeland. There were and still are Jews who are anti-Zionists, including a few in Israel. And I believe there are some Arabs who could still accept Jews as a minority population in a country run according to Sharia law. But I fear that most protesters who prance about shouting “From the River to the Sea, Palestine will be Free!” haven’t bothered to even wonder what plans Hamas has for their Jewish neighbors living in Israel. Protesters may envisage a happy place where Jews, Muslims, Christians, atheists and others will live peacefully side by side. I don’t for a single minute believe that that is what Hamas envisions. 

If you read some history of the pre-WW II era and then the role of the Grand Mufti of Jerusalem during the War, this scenario is not what was envisioned. And no one really presses Hamas to describe what would happen to the Jews of Israel if Hamas succeeded in extinguishing the State of Israel. Given recent events, what’s your guess? 

You might share my concern about Jewish settlements in the West Bank. Many people do. But there’s actually a case to be made in support of the settlements (excluding those on land clearly owned by individual Palestinians). Yes, the settlements seem to be a thorn in the side of anyone who supports a two-state solution. But who is that today? Too few Israelis and certainly no Palestinians. In any event, I refer you to an intriguing explanation of why the settlements are legal.*

I have long been a fan of the two-state solution, but I now realize that no Palestinians support such a scheme. The optimists at the Economists think things are so bad right now that both Israel and Hamas need a way out, and a two-state solution might enable both to save face. I know they are way more informed than I am, and smarter too, but I think current circumstances only incentivize Israel to take over all of Palestine giving up all pretense of two states. Could some parts develop the level of autonomy of US states? Of Scotland? Of Cantons in Switzerland? I don’t know, but that’s the best outcome I can see. 

The other option I see is a second Holocaust, this one conducted by the Palestinians with the backing of Iran. Israel may use its nuclear weapons to try to forestall such an outcome, in which case, all hell breaks loose. Truly, that’s how worried I am. May I please be wrong.

Suggestions for further learning:
*Jesusalem and the Israeli settlements according to international law,
lecture by Natasha Hausdorff

Palestine 1936: The Great Revolt and the Roots of the Middle East Conflict, (readable book) by Oren Kessler, 2023

About That Code of Ethics…

The reason I featured that particular “code of ethics” (see my May 25 post) for discussion is because it so starkly contrasts with other guidance we get nowadays. I’m thinking of “centering” guidance, such as “We will center racism…” or whatever other ism is in the headlines. I stumbled across the “Live each day with courage…” code when I was browsing news about Wyoming, my home state. I do that periodically, just to see what that broad empty expanse of the Wild West is up to today.

In my most recent exploration of all things Wyoming, I discovered that the Code of the West was adopted in 2010 as the Official State Code of Wyoming. The one thing I changed in my recent post was the “Work for the team” line which was originally “Ride for the brand.” I just figured that “Ride for the brand” would give too much away, and I wanted it to come to you in a neutral way.

This code is being used in schools across the state, and I have to say that prefer it to all of the various diversity, equity, inclusion guidance that kids get in many schools today. I would quibble with lots of it based on experience derived from my advancing age. For example: “Always finish what you start.” Ha. A year ago, as part of my ongoing downsizing effort, I officially gave up on a variety of knitting projects, some of which were fairly close to completion. I’d had them sitting around, some for years, waiting for a bit of advice, time, or that feeling of optimism I had when I started them. They only induced guilt each time I looked at them until I finally said to myself, “This is ridiculous. Perhaps someone will make use of this yarn. Get these out of here!” And yes, I’m glad I did that.

One bit of the code I do like is this one: “Talk less. Say more.” For me, it’s missing a bit in the middle, namely “Listen first.” I really am committed to doing a lot more listening lately, and I am learning some valuable things. I’d do other editing before adopting the code as is, but if a state is going to give guidance in this day and age, I rather they use this code than, say, the Ten Commandments, or “Look for racism everywhere all the time,” or other admonitions that pass for good advice today.

If you were searching for advice that schools could adopt, would you start from scratch, edit something like this, or forego the exercise altogether? Years ago, I substituted in a 4th grade classroom that had this for a motto: “It’s nice to be important, but it’s more important to be nice.” It was a great class, but perhaps it was because the teacher just led the kids in a supportive, but patient way. Perhaps it wasn’t just the motto. Whatever the case, I do think it might be worthwhile to think through our values now and then. Have they changed? Do they need to be updated? Have world events or personal experience affected how we see things?

Hmm.

People Are Opting Out

People are opting out. Of life. I wonder why. Can we blame it all on Covid? No, I don’t think so. Yes, I think Covid threw a monkey wrench into life as we knew it. But if it hadn’t been Covid, I think it would have been something else.

For sure, the interruption to our social life is having an impact. Not feeling comfortable eating out in a busy, popular cafe is truly a downer. And I heard today that after a large, maskless meeting of CDC employees last week, 35 of them soon came down with Covid. So masking up in big groups or small rooms is tedious, but that hasn’t pushed me over the edge.

Everyone has a tipping point, and I felt like I reached mine last week. I was across the street for an eye exam and noticed that the very convenient, very helpful eye-ware shop was shuttered. Grrr, I thought. Decisions from much higher up, I was told. (Much higher up, in this case, means the bosses of the very large Catholic institution that now runs the show.)

But that wasn’t what did me in. Rather it was the discovery a few days later that the hospital gift shop was also being closed. WTF? Do the bishops disapprove of shopping? Do they not know that shopping is therapy? Do they not know that patients’ families need a distraction? Do they not know that we all need a treat or a magazine or a card for someone now and then? The gift shop was run by volunteers with about a half of a staff position or less doing oversight. WTF, indeed! 

Perhaps I could survive the loss of these two very handy businesses if they weren’t coming on top of the loss of Macy’s, Columbia Sportswear, Bed, Bath and Beyond, Chico’s, the neighborhood branch of our bank, a bunch of retail at Pacific Place, the pharmacy next to Gelatiamo, and retailers that I never patronized, but other people did and they helped keep downtown alive. 

Supposedly, there are more people downtown this week because Amazon said to show up at the office or else. Perhaps that means something now that even the Amazons of the world are laying people off. Granted, the people who work at Amazon don’t exactly support my kind of retail, but somehow they help the world look alive, even in their nerdy zombie state. There was certainly more traffic today when I managed to run two errands during morning and evening rush hours by mistake. Note to self: avoid rush hours again!

I don’t think the lack of shopping options is the primary factor leading to the deep pessimism that I and others are feeling. It’s pretty easy to thump the table and grumble at the loss of a gift shop, but I’m confident that the pessimism derives from more serious problems. Such as the wildly dysfunctional national government, the wildly stupid extremes of the culture wars, the wildly ridiculous length of being on hold for answers to the simplest of questions. And construction, still going on everywhere! And the transit interruptions, and the absence of oatmeal in the Bistro, and  the impossible wait times for elevator repairs, and the endless timelines for  “corridor refurbishment,” and the incomplete remodel of our main meeting room such that the audio doesn’t work on one day and the lighting doesn’t work on another day, and no, the drapes are not here yet.

Nothing ever gets finished. The finish line might as well not exist: no one will ever get to it. 

Hence pessimism. For older folks such as myself, this is taking a toll. You know things are bad when people are opting to end their lives by VSED – that’s “Voluntarily Stopping Eating and Drinking” to you youngsters out there. It is not an easy way to die. But guns are not allowed in my retirement community. Frankly, I’d buy a gun and break that rule before starving myself to death. Seriously, what are they going to do to me? Kick me out? Ha. That’s the whole point of the exercise. 

I actually am not at that degree of pessimism yet, but it is sad to see that others are. And I am well and truly frustrated with the state of the world. I’ve been well and truly frustrated for quite a while, but Ukraine just did me in, even more than the way we mucked up Covid. Could we please just enable Ukraine to win this war within my lifetime? Please! Just win it! 

Well, I live in Seattle, and our hockey team, the Kraken, are in the second round of the playoffs – in just their second year of existence. I see why some people tune out the news and tune in to sports. But then once the game is over, the corridors are still not finished, there is still no oatmeal in the Bistro, Madison Street is still a mess, and the AV system in Anderson Hall will likely never be complete. 

So we are heading out of town for a few days in eastern Washington. I don’t care if it rains or snows or we are blinded by the sun. We are outa here, folks. See ya later!

Unlearning Fear

Tyre Nichols. Philando Castile. Two men, just trying to comply with police instructions, end up dead for no good reason. How do we put an end to this disgrace?

Some deaths at the hands of police are just wrong. Some deaths at the hands of police seem unnecessary, but investigations reveal reasons for police use of deadly force. Sometimes the police are clearly the good guys, and the bad guys are truly out of control, dangerous to the public, and need to be stopped. When any police shooting is caught on video, the only thing we know is that we don’t know the whole story.

Here are a few things we do know: people, liberals especially, vastly overestimate all killings by police and especially the killings of black men.* Black Lives Matter leaders have pushed the narrative of out of control police departments targeting black men. This narrative only increases fear of police to the point that more men resist and/or flee which only increases the risk that force, perhaps deadly force, will be used on them. 

The prevailing narrative ramps up fear to what might be an irrational level, but the deaths of Nichols and Castile illustrate that some amount of fear is rational. Many police departments are trying to train and retrain officers to interact in ways that reduce the violent and intimidating tactics we associate with anyone being arrested. The goal is for everyone to come out alive at the end. Ideally, black men would know that this is happening, understand that the goal is for everyone to chill, cooperate with police, and end up alive, either released when appropriate or working their way through a justice system that is fair to all. 

The recent death of Tyre Nichols helped me understand why fear is still rational if you’re stopped by police. The question is when is it rational to let go of rational fear, that is fear based on reasonable evidence that police just might kill you? 

We, as humans, are not that good at judging risk, yet we do it all day every day. What’s truly challenging is recalibrating our level of fear when the calculations change. Yet, we can do this. Even I, with my long-standing fear of flying, flew on four airplanes in 2022 without any white knuckles. Somehow, the safety record for flying became so compelling that I had to dial back my fear, especially when it was obvious that the only way I could get where I wanted to go was to fly. Fortunately, no recent disasters occurred that would have interfered with my new-found confidence.

This is not the case however, when it comes to interactions between police and the public, especially the black and brown public. I can only imagine the emotions that ran through police departments that were making a serious effort to alter the tone of interactions with suspects in non-violent situations. Decent cops must surely have been devastated to see the videos of the beating of Tyre Nichols. Decent black men may surely have thought that things are never going to change. 

Fear can absolutely be rational. It can also be irrational. One of the challenges young women face is learning to calibrate their level of fear to the social situations they encounter as they enter the world outside their home. (I’m skipping the fear some children learn at home for now.) We’ve all heard about “the talk” that black mothers give to their sons in hopes that they will emerge unscathed from encounters with police. Calibrate your fear. Your best bet to emerge alive is to follow instructions.

And then, Tyre Nichols. Was Nicholas an exception? Yes. But how much of an exception? Were other examples simply not filmed for our viewing? How many examples? How long will it take for young black men to begin to let go of rational fear? If deaths as senseless as those of Castile or Nicholas happen only once a year, or once every two years, or five years, it will be enough to sustain the fear that lingers. Police must intervene to stop their peers who overreact. Young black men could benefit from recalibrating their fear of police, knowing that change is happening. Dialing back the violence and the rhetoric could occur at the same time from both sides. No, the burden shouldn’t be on young black men to unlearn their fear. But the reality is that their chances of sustaining permanent injuries or being killed are low enough to take a chance on compliance. I get why everyone might disagree with me, but I hope both sides will give peace a chance. 

* Sources:

Washington Post Data Base

Roland Fryer studies of use of force

Public estimates of police use of force