You and I don’t understand tariffs. Sorry to be blunt, but our ignorance is making it impossible to have an informed discussion of tariffs, which is giving Trump the upper hand on this issue. Yes, of course, I dislike the bluster Trump spews on any issue, but, as usual, there is a grain of truth underlying some of his gripes. 

As it turns out, the very nice Canadians to our north have been levying tariffs on US products for years – to their advantage and our disadvantage. Take oranges. Oranges? Is Canada seriously protecting their orange groves in the Northwest Territories? Most of these tariffs are low, but American poultry and dairy farmers grumble about limited access to Canadian markets. Trade agreements keep tariffs low on most items, but there are strategies other than tariffs that countries use to limit imports.

Protecting domestic agriculture is important to most countries, so plant and animal products are often a target of tariffs. When there is pressure to lower tariffs, safety regulations can serve as a substitute. Is American beef safe to eat? Gee, I hope so. But foreign countries can often come up with some issue to justify excluding our products. 

And what about cars? Is Thailand a major producer of automobiles? No, yet they levy 80% tariffs on US made autos. Are all autos subject to the same tariffs? Or does Thailand levy lower tariffs on cars made in countries other than the US? Yes, but none of this is simple. 

And let’s say that it sounds like a good thing to encourage companies to manufacture cars in the US. So should we take jobs away from Canada and Mexico? Hmm. Try thinking ahead a step or two to consider repercussions of that decision. Back when most people were hating on NAFTA, I was wondering if building up manufacturing capacity in Mexico might be a good thing. Perhaps fewer Mexicans would want to immigrate illegally to the US. (I didn’t foresee the pressure that would result from violence in other Central American countries. Darn. It’s so hard to engineer paradise!) 

My point is simply that trade is messy. Beyond specific tariffs, there are many other costs and policies that impact trade. Shipping is subject to port charges depending on where ships were built, which flag they fly, who owns them, and who crews them, AND not just port charges, but also cargo cuing preferences (putting some ships at the head of the line to load and unload). It’s mind boggling. 

Trump is so inarticulate that he doesn’t help regular people (you and me) understand why things might need to change. It’s all “America First!” “They’re taking advantage of us!!!” The result is that we support and oppose policies just on the basis of our political biases. I’m not here to advocate for any of the tariffs Trump is loudly trumpeting. I don’t have the knowledge to know if and when any of his specific tariffs might be good or bad. My bias is that Trump doesn’t know much more than I do which, of course, Is a concern. And I don’t trust his judgement when it comes to advisers. 

So I worry. I worry that the US is alienating almost every other country on earth, except Russia of course. I think friends and allies are a good thing, so that makes me sad.

I worry that the world is too complicated for mere mortals to comprehend. The complications of medicine, manufacturing, trade, communications, are such that there are infinite opportunities for scumbags to take advantage of one loophole or another. Lobbyists work hard to protect their employers’ access to loopholes. Meanwhile, policing it all is well nigh impossible.

I worry that democracy is not a workable form of government. I talk myself down from this thought with increasing difficulty. But, seriously, wouldn’t a benign dictator with a set of smart, compassionate advisers be comforting? And less work for all of us? I’ll post a job-opening on Indeed or ZipRecruiter right away.